Construction Trends to Prepare for in 2018 - Part 1

The December 2017 Constructrr recap brought several views of owner uncertainty into the same conversation.

Stephen Mulva, Dean Kashiwagi, Dave Hughes, Ken Gronbach, Paul Doherty, Michael Bull, Bruce Welty, Leigh Stringer, and Barbra Batshalom spoke about procurement, capital planning, demographics, property markets, workplace health, and sustainability. Across those forecasts, four decision lenses kept returning the choice to the owner.

Direction can add complexity instead of clarity

Dr. Dean Kashiwagi argued that repeated management direction adds people, decisions, confusion, and risk. He described a chain in which each layer tells the next layer what to do, making the work less transparent and making blame easier when something goes wrong.

Dean's percentage came from his own reported research. For an owner, the practical concern was the mechanism he described: more direction does not automatically produce a clearer decision.

A capacity plan can carry more certainty than the market provides

Stephen Mulva described a sequential planning model built for a stable scope and a long planning horizon. He contrasted it with a more adaptive approach that could change as business demand became clearer.

Stephen's capacity figures and financial projections reflected the 2017 market he was discussing. His planning limit was broader: a team should not treat a forecast as knowledge it does not yet have.

Michael Bull brought the choice back to property facts

Michael Bull recommended looking at the investor's goals and risk tolerance, then reviewing lease structure, debt, occupancy, rate growth, competition, supply, and property condition. He wanted decisions “based on reality, that are based on facts, and not kind of back of the napkin.”

That list did not remove uncertainty. It named the evidence that belonged to the property decision instead of letting a broad market story decide for the owner.

People and culture were part of the performance evidence

Leigh Stringer compared the care companies give equipment with the attention they give people. Barbra Batshalom connected sustainability work with leadership, culture, resource decisions, and evidence of performance.

Those excerpts widened the owner frame. Cost, schedule, and property conditions remained important. So did the conditions in which people were expected to work and the evidence behind a claim of business or building performance.

At the next owner review, label each major assumption as known, uncertain, or capable of changing the decision. Place the strongest available supporting fact beside each label. If a forecast cannot change the choice, keep it as context rather than letting it drive the meeting.

The pause between prediction and commitment belongs with the owner. The next capital decision should be guided by evidence strong enough for that choice, not only by what sounds interesting about the future.